Spatial heterogeneity and tendency prediction of a community transmission model with HIV detection
December 2026
World Health Organization recommends that the individuals with HIV infection take HIV detection as early as possible to avoid the potential transmission risk in the community, because HIV infection...
Symptom-based diagnostic models for common respiratory viral infections: a machine learning and natural language processing study
December 2026
This study aimed to develop an efficient and cost-saving diagnostic approach using natural language processing and explainable machine learning models....
Associations between Legionellosis and meteorological variables in Ohio, 2001-2023
December 2026
Legionellosis, a respiratory disease caused by Legionella bacteria, has increased in incidence across the United States, yet the environmental factors influencing its rise remain unclear. We examined...
Sensitivity of Convergent Cross Mapping to temporal discontinuities: A case study of seasonal influenza in Hong Kong
December 2026
Convergent cross mapping (CCM) method has been widely applied to investigate environmental drivers of infectious disease dynamics, particularly for seasonal influenza. However, its robustness to temporal...
Dynamical modeling and analysis of the impact of zonal prevention and control under normalized management on African Swine Fever transmission in China
December 2026
China's first outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) occurred in August 2018, rapidly spreading to all 31 provinces within three months, causing massive losses to the pork industry. After emergency measures...
Examining the impact of emotion-driven resource allocation on information-behavior-disease coupling dynamics
December 2026
In public emergency management, both medical and informational resources play crucial roles in shaping disease spreading dynamics. To enrich the literature on resource allocation in the context of disease...
Rek-Surv: A lightweight deep survival model for plant infectious disease onset prediction
December 2026
Infectious disease outbreaks in crop systems pose a significant threat to global food security, particularly when early detection and intervention opportunities are missed. Predicting not just whether...
Mosquito salivary protein antibodies as efficient endpoints for vector control trials: A mechanistic comparison with clinical and entomological outcomes
December 2026
Evaluating vector control interventions through randomized trials is often challenging because clinical endpoints, such as infection incidence, are rare and heterogeneous even areas at high risk, resulting...
Analysis and simulation for a two-sex transmission model of HPV infection in Xinjiang of China
December 2026
This study develops a two-sex deterministic compartmental model to investigate the transmission dynamics of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) and the subsequent progression to cervical cancer within a heterosexual...
A novel mathematical modeling and optimal control analysis of monkeypox transmission incorporating double-dose vaccination strategies: Insights from the recent outbreak
December 2026
Monkeypox (Mpox) has re-emerged as a serious global public health concern due to its potential human-to-human transmission and persistence in the environment. This study develops a new deterministic...
Simulation and prediction of human brucellosis epidemic trends in Changji city
December 2026
The number of new human brucellosis cases has shown a periodic upward trend in Changji city, Xinjiang. It is essential to estimate the transmission intensity of brucellosis and put forward effective...
Dynamics and optimal control of a weighted-network dengue model with seasonal transmission
December 2026
In this paper, we introduce a novel dengue model on a weighted network to investigate the roles of human mobility, seasonal temperature shifts, and spatial heterogeneity. First, the positivity, global...
Infection dynamics for fluctuating infection or removal rates regarding the number of infected and susceptible individuals
December 2026
In general, the rates of infection and removal (whether through recovery or death) are nonlinear functions of the number of infected and susceptible individuals. One of the simplest models for the spread...
Resolving parameter uncertainty in SIR models through population-level serological surveillance: A synthetic study
December 2026
Epidemic models face a critical challenge: surveillance systems capture only a fraction of infections (often <10%). We reveal two fundamental problems. First, when models ignore underdetection entirely—treating...
Expanding optimization ensemble model methods for forecasting seasonal influenza in the U.S.
December 2026
Each year, the seasonal influenza epidemic sees significant variability in its evolution. Accurate forecasts of future influenza cases are important for planning public health responses. The United...
Dynamics of infectious disease spread between transportation hubs and surrounding communities
December 2026
Urban transit systems, particularly those in major metropolitan areas, are becoming increasingly interconnected, making it essential to better understand passenger mobility and its implications for...
Memory mechanisms for behavioural change in Bayesian individual-level spatial epidemic models
December 2026
Accurate modelling of infectious disease transmission often requires capturing how individuals adjust their behaviours in response to evolving epidemic conditions. While recently developed behavioural...
Ensemble-labeling of infectious disease time series to evaluate early warning systems
September 2026
Early warning systems (EWSs) for detecting disease outbreaks can help make informed public health decisions and organize necessary responses. During the COVID-19 pandemic, several EWSs were proposed...
From qualitative prediction to quantitative insight: combined meteorological patterns and regional dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Liaoning Province, China, 2010–2024
September 2026
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS) is an emerging tick-borne disease with an expanding range and increasing public health burden. Meteorology-driven frameworks that integrate qualitative...
Simulating treatment effects for gonorrhoea using a within-host mathematical model
September 2026
Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) bacteria have evolved resistance to many of the antibiotics used to treat gonorrhoea infection. To explore potential treatment options for gonorrhoea, we extend a previously...
Within host dynamics of HPV infection with cellular immunity and HPV-infected dormant cells reactivation
September 2026
Like other viruses, human papillomavirus genotypes can remain dormant for years or decades and later reactivate due to some well-known factors. The activation of such a dormant infection years later...
Estimation of the exponential growth rate of an epidemic
September 2026
Accurate estimation of the initial growth rate of an epidemic is critical for assessing transmissibility and guiding early interventions. Standard regression-based methods, such as negative binomial...
Modelling the effect of long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria transmission dynamics in Kebbi State, Nigeria
September 2026
Malaria, in Nigeria, is a disease of public health concern that has caused both morbidity and mortality, with the highest prevalence in Kebbi State. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been...
Estimation of transmission distance between cases of (re-)emerging respiratory infectious diseases and its potential application in outbreak response
September 2026
Quantifying transmission distance helps to understand infectious disease spread patterns, but few studies have assessed this for (re-)emerging respiratory infectious diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic's...
Acute respiratory infection (COVID-19) risk prediction in travelers: A random forest model
September 2026
Early screening during outbreaks of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) is critical for controlling disease spread among international travelers. However, the massive volume of traveler data generated...
