Quantifying West Nile virus circulation in the avian host population in Northern Italy
June 2025
West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most threatening mosquito-borne pathogens in Italy where hundreds of human cases were recorded during the last decade. Here, we estimated the WNV incidence in the...
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Dynamics and asymptotic profiles of a local-nonlocal dispersal SIR epidemic model with spatial heterogeneity
June 2025
This research investigates a novel approach to modeling an SIR epidemic in a heterogeneous environment by imposing certain restrictions on population mobility. Our study reveals the influence of partially...
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Global infectious disease early warning models: An updated review and lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic
June 2025
An early warning model for infectious diseases is a crucial tool for timely monitoring, prevention, and control of disease outbreaks. The integration of diverse multi-source data using big data and...
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Can the prevalence of one STI serve as a predictor for another? A mathematical modeling analysis
June 2025
We aimed to understand to what extent knowledge of the prevalence of one sexually transmitted infection (STI) can predict the prevalence of another STI, with application for men who have sex with men...
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Estimating cumulative infection rate of COVID-19 after adjusting the dynamic zero-COVID policy in China
June 2025
At the end of 2022, China adjusted its coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention and control strategy. How this adjustment affected the cumulative infection rate is debated, and how second booster...
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Social contact patterns and their impact on the transmission of respiratory pathogens in rural China
June 2025
Social contact patterns significantly influence the transmission dynamics of respiratory pathogens. Previous surveys have quantified human social contact patterns, yielding heterogeneous results across...
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Treatment failure and the threshold of disease extinction
June 2025
Antibiotic treatment failure related to carriers poses a serious problem to physicians and epidemiologists. Due to the sparsity of data, assessing the role in infection dynamics is difficult. In this...
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Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Brazil: A comparative analysis across pre-, during, and post-COVID-19 eras
June 2025
This paper presents an investigation into the spatio-temporal dynamics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) across the diverse health regions of Brazil from 2016 to 2024. Leveraging extensive...
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A modelling approach to characterise the interaction between behavioral response and epidemics: A study based on COVID-19
June 2025
During epidemic outbreaks, human behavior is highly influential on the disease transmission and hence affects the course, duration and outcome of the epidemics. In order to examine the feedback effect...
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Lockdown policy in pandemics: Enforcement, adherence, and effectiveness in the case of COVID-19
June 2025
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COVID-19 dynamic modeling of immune variability and multistage vaccination strategies: A case study in Malaysia
June 2025
Hybrid-immune and immunodeficient individuals have been identified by the World Health Organization as two vulnerable groups in the context of COVID-19, but their distinct characteristics remain underexplored....
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Role of limited medical resources in an epidemic model with media report and general birth rate
June 2025
This paper formulates an SEIRSHM epidemic model with general birth rate, media report and limited medical resources. Firstly, the well-posedness of the solutions and the extinction of the disease are...
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Exploring Zika's dynamics: A scoping review journey from epidemic to equations through mathematical modelling
June 2025
Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, along with the concurrent circulation of other arboviruses, presents a great public health challenge, reminding the utilization of mathematical modelling as a crucial tool...
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Forecasting influenza epidemics in China using transmission dynamic model with absolute humidity
March 2025
An influenza forecasting system is critical to influenza epidemic preparedness. Low temperature has long been recognized as a condition favoring influenza epidemic, yet it fails to justify the summer...
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Regional variations in HIV diagnosis in Japan before and during the COVID-19 pandemic
March 2025
The number of people undergoing voluntary HIV testing has abruptly decreased since 2020. The geographical heterogeneity of HIV infection and the impact of COVID-19 on the diagnosis of HIV at regional...
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A data science pipeline applied to Australia's 2022 COVID-19 Omicron waves
March 2025
The field of software engineering is advancing at astonishing speed, with packages now available to support many stages of data science pipelines. These packages can support infectious disease modelling...
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Exploring the influencing factors of scrub typhus in Gannan region, China, based on spatial regression modelling and geographical detector
March 2025
Scrub typhus is a significant public health issue with a wide distribution and is influenced by various determinants. However, in order to effectively eradicate scrub typhus, it is crucial to identify...
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Assessing the impact of disease incidence and immunization on the resilience of complex networks during epidemics
March 2025
Disease severity through an immunized population ensconced on a physical network topology is a key technique for preventing epidemic spreading. Its influence can be quantified by adjusting the common...
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Flexible regression model for predicting the dissemination of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus under variable climatic conditions
March 2025
Greening, or Huanglongbing (HLB), poses a severe threat to global citrus cultivation, affecting various citrus species and compromising fruit production. Primarily transmitted by psyllids during phloem...
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A heterogeneous continuous age-structured model of mumps with vaccine
March 2025
In classical mumps models, individuals are generally assumed to be uniformly mixed (homogeneous), ignoring population heterogeneity (preference, activity, etc.). Age is the key to catching mixed patterns...
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Nonlinear mixed models and related approaches in infectious disease modeling: A systematic and critical review
March 2025
The level of surveillance and preparedness against epidemics varies across countries, resulting in different responses to outbreaks. When conducting an in-depth analysis of microinfection dynamics,...
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Impact of vaccination on Omicron's escape variants: Insights from fine-scale modelling of waning immunity in Hong Kong
March 2025
COVID-19 vaccine-induced protection declines over time. This waning of immunity has been described in modelling as a lower level of protection. This study incorporated fine-scale vaccine waning into...
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Predicting influenza in China from October 1, 2023, to February 5, 2024: A transmission dynamics model based on population migration
March 2025
Since November 2023, influenza has ranked first in reported cases of infectious diseases in China, with the outbreak in both northern and southern provinces exceeding the levels observed during the...
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Planning and adjusting the COVID-19 booster vaccination campaign to reduce disease burden
March 2025
As public health policies shifted in 2023 from emergency response to long-term COVID-19 disease management, immunization programs started to face the challenge of formulating routine booster campaigns...
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Gradient boosting: A computationally efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for fitting large Bayesian spatio-temporal binomial regression models
March 2025
Disease forecasting and surveillance often involve fitting models to a tremendous volume of historical testing data collected over space and time. Bayesian spatio-temporal regression models fit with...
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