Quantifying West Nile virus circulation in the avian host population in Northern Italy
June 2025
West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most threatening mosquito-borne pathogens in Italy where hundreds of human cases were recorded during the last decade. Here, we estimated the WNV incidence in the...
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Dynamics and asymptotic profiles of a local-nonlocal dispersal SIR epidemic model with spatial heterogeneity
June 2025
This research investigates a novel approach to modeling an SIR epidemic in a heterogeneous environment by imposing certain restrictions on population mobility. Our study reveals the influence of partially...
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Global infectious disease early warning models: An updated review and lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic
June 2025
An early warning model for infectious diseases is a crucial tool for timely monitoring, prevention, and control of disease outbreaks. The integration of diverse multi-source data using big data and...
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Forecasting influenza epidemics in China using transmission dynamic model with absolute humidity
March 2025
An influenza forecasting system is critical to influenza epidemic preparedness. Low temperature has long been recognized as a condition favoring influenza epidemic, yet it fails to justify the summer...
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Regional variations in HIV diagnosis in Japan before and during the COVID-19 pandemic
March 2025
The number of people undergoing voluntary HIV testing has abruptly decreased since 2020. The geographical heterogeneity of HIV infection and the impact of COVID-19 on the diagnosis of HIV at regional...
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A data science pipeline applied to Australia's 2022 COVID-19 Omicron waves
March 2025
The field of software engineering is advancing at astonishing speed, with packages now available to support many stages of data science pipelines. These packages can support infectious disease modelling...
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Exploring the influencing factors of scrub typhus in Gannan region, China, based on spatial regression modelling and geographical detector
March 2025
Scrub typhus is a significant public health issue with a wide distribution and is influenced by various determinants. However, in order to effectively eradicate scrub typhus, it is crucial to identify...
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Assessing the impact of disease incidence and immunization on the resilience of complex networks during epidemics
March 2025
Disease severity through an immunized population ensconced on a physical network topology is a key technique for preventing epidemic spreading. Its influence can be quantified by adjusting the common...
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Flexible regression model for predicting the dissemination of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus under variable climatic conditions
March 2025
Greening, or Huanglongbing (HLB), poses a severe threat to global citrus cultivation, affecting various citrus species and compromising fruit production. Primarily transmitted by psyllids during phloem...
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A heterogeneous continuous age-structured model of mumps with vaccine
March 2025
In classical mumps models, individuals are generally assumed to be uniformly mixed (homogeneous), ignoring population heterogeneity (preference, activity, etc.). Age is the key to catching mixed patterns...
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Nonlinear mixed models and related approaches in infectious disease modeling: A systematic and critical review
March 2025
The level of surveillance and preparedness against epidemics varies across countries, resulting in different responses to outbreaks. When conducting an in-depth analysis of microinfection dynamics,...
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Impact of vaccination on Omicron's escape variants: Insights from fine-scale modelling of waning immunity in Hong Kong
March 2025
COVID-19 vaccine-induced protection declines over time. This waning of immunity has been described in modelling as a lower level of protection. This study incorporated fine-scale vaccine waning into...
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Predicting influenza in China from October 1, 2023, to February 5, 2024: A transmission dynamics model based on population migration
March 2025
Since November 2023, influenza has ranked first in reported cases of infectious diseases in China, with the outbreak in both northern and southern provinces exceeding the levels observed during the...
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Planning and adjusting the COVID-19 booster vaccination campaign to reduce disease burden
March 2025
As public health policies shifted in 2023 from emergency response to long-term COVID-19 disease management, immunization programs started to face the challenge of formulating routine booster campaigns...
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Gradient boosting: A computationally efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for fitting large Bayesian spatio-temporal binomial regression models
March 2025
Disease forecasting and surveillance often involve fitting models to a tremendous volume of historical testing data collected over space and time. Bayesian spatio-temporal regression models fit with...
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A tentative exploration for the association between influenza virus infection and SARS-CoV-2 infection in Shihezi, China: A test-negative study
March 2025
The outbreak of respiratory diseases, such as COVID-19 and influenza, has drawn global attention. However, it remains unclear whether the risk of influenza A infection may be affected by the history...
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Modelling and investigating memory immune responses in infectious disease. Application to influenza a virus and sars-cov-2 reinfections
March 2025
Understanding effector and memory immune responses against influenza A virus (IAV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and re-infections is extremely important,...
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Dynamics of an SVEIR transmission model with protection awareness and two strains
March 2025
As of May 2024, the main strains of COVID-19 caused hundreds of millions of infection cases and millions of deaths worldwide. In this study, we consider the COVID-19 epidemics with the main strains...
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Stronger binding affinities of gp120/CD4 in Catarrhini provide insights into HIV/host interactions
March 2025
Human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) exploits the viral gp120 protein and host CD4/CCR5 receptors for the pandemic infection to humans. The host co-receptors of not only humans but also several primates...
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Network-based virus dynamic simulation: Evaluating the fomite disinfection effectiveness on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in indoor environment
March 2025
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is involved in aerosol particles and droplets excreted from a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient. Such aerosol particles or droplets...
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Conditional logistic individual-level models of spatial infectious disease dynamics
March 2025
Here, we introduce a novel framework for modelling the spatiotemporal dynamics of disease spread known as conditional logistic individual-level models (CL-ILM's). This framework alleviates much of the...
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Application of multiple linear regression model and long short-term memory with compartmental model to forecast dengue cases in Selangor, Malaysia based on climate variables
March 2025
Despite the implementation of various initiatives, dengue remains a significant public health concern in Malaysia. Given that dengue has no specific treatment, dengue prediction remains a useful early...
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Behavioural Change Piecewise Constant Spatial Epidemic Models
March 2025
Human behaviour significantly affects the dynamics of infectious disease transmission as people adjust their behavior in response to outbreak intensity, thereby impacting disease spread and control...
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Evaluation of wastewater percent positive for assessing epidemic trends - A case study of COVID-19 in Shangrao, China
March 2025
This study aims to assess the feasibility of evaluating the COVID-19 epidemic trend through monitoring the positive percentage of SARS-CoV-19 RNA in wastewater....
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Comparative assessment of airborne infection risk tools in enclosed spaces: Implications for disease control
March 2025
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, highlighted the importance of understanding transmission modes and implementing effective mitigation strategies. Recognizing airborne transmission as a primary...
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