Early prediction of the outbreak risk of dengue fever in Ba Ria-Vung Tau province, Vietnam: An analysis based on Google trends and statistical models
September 2025
Dengue fever (DF), caused by the Dengue virus through the Aedes mosquito vector, is a dangerous infectious disease with the potential to become a global epidemic. Vietnam, particularly Ba Ria-Vung Tau...
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Assessing the effectiveness of test-trace-isolate interventions using a multi-layered temporal network
September 2025
In the early stage of an infectious disease outbreak, public health strategies tend to gravitate towards non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) given the time required to develop targeted treatments...
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A refractory density approach to a multi-scale SEIRS epidemic model
September 2025
We propose a novel multi-scale modeling framework for infectious disease spreading, borrowing ideas and modeling tools from the so-called Refractory Density (RD) approach. We introduce a microscopic...
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The interaction between population age structure and policy interventions on the spread of COVID-19
September 2025
COVID-19 has triggered an unprecedented public health crisis and a global economic shock. As countries and cities have transitioned away from strict pandemic restrictions, the most effective reopening...
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Epidemiological indices with multiple circulating pathogen strains
September 2025
Epidemiological indicators (e.g. reproduction numbers and epidemicity indices) describe long- and short-term behaviour of ongoing epidemics. Their evolving values provide context for designing control...
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Quantifying West Nile virus circulation in the avian host population in Northern Italy
June 2025
West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most threatening mosquito-borne pathogens in Italy where hundreds of human cases were recorded during the last decade. Here, we estimated the WNV incidence in the...
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Dynamics and asymptotic profiles of a local-nonlocal dispersal SIR epidemic model with spatial heterogeneity
June 2025
This research investigates a novel approach to modeling an SIR epidemic in a heterogeneous environment by imposing certain restrictions on population mobility. Our study reveals the influence of partially...
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Global infectious disease early warning models: An updated review and lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic
June 2025
An early warning model for infectious diseases is a crucial tool for timely monitoring, prevention, and control of disease outbreaks. The integration of diverse multi-source data using big data and...
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Can the prevalence of one STI serve as a predictor for another? A mathematical modeling analysis
June 2025
We aimed to understand to what extent knowledge of the prevalence of one sexually transmitted infection (STI) can predict the prevalence of another STI, with application for men who have sex with men...
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Estimating cumulative infection rate of COVID-19 after adjusting the dynamic zero-COVID policy in China
June 2025
At the end of 2022, China adjusted its coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention and control strategy. How this adjustment affected the cumulative infection rate is debated, and how second booster...
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Social contact patterns and their impact on the transmission of respiratory pathogens in rural China
June 2025
Social contact patterns significantly influence the transmission dynamics of respiratory pathogens. Previous surveys have quantified human social contact patterns, yielding heterogeneous results across...
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Treatment failure and the threshold of disease extinction
June 2025
Antibiotic treatment failure related to carriers poses a serious problem to physicians and epidemiologists. Due to the sparsity of data, assessing the role in infection dynamics is difficult. In this...
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Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Brazil: A comparative analysis across pre-, during, and post-COVID-19 eras
June 2025
This paper presents an investigation into the spatio-temporal dynamics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) across the diverse health regions of Brazil from 2016 to 2024. Leveraging extensive...
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A modelling approach to characterise the interaction between behavioral response and epidemics: A study based on COVID-19
June 2025
During epidemic outbreaks, human behavior is highly influential on the disease transmission and hence affects the course, duration and outcome of the epidemics. In order to examine the feedback effect...
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Lockdown policy in pandemics: Enforcement, adherence, and effectiveness in the case of COVID-19
June 2025
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COVID-19 dynamic modeling of immune variability and multistage vaccination strategies: A case study in Malaysia
June 2025
Hybrid-immune and immunodeficient individuals have been identified by the World Health Organization as two vulnerable groups in the context of COVID-19, but their distinct characteristics remain underexplored....
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Role of limited medical resources in an epidemic model with media report and general birth rate
June 2025
This paper formulates an SEIRSHM epidemic model with general birth rate, media report and limited medical resources. Firstly, the well-posedness of the solutions and the extinction of the disease are...
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Hybrid metapopulation agent-based epidemiological models for efficient insight on the individual scale: A contribution to green computing
June 2025
Emerging infectious diseases and climate change are two of the major challenges in 21st century. Although over the past decades, highly-resolved mathematical models have contributed in understanding...
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HCV transmission model with protection awareness in an SEACTR community
June 2025
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a bloodborne virus that causes both acute and chronic hepatitis with the severity from a mild illness to liver cirrhosis and cancer. As one of the major infectious diseases...
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Exploring Zika's dynamics: A scoping review journey from epidemic to equations through mathematical modelling
June 2025
Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, along with the concurrent circulation of other arboviruses, presents a great public health challenge, reminding the utilization of mathematical modelling as a crucial tool...
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State-space modelling for infectious disease surveillance data: Dynamic regression and covariance analysis
June 2025
We analyze COVID-19 surveillance data from Ontario, Canada, using state-space modelling techniques to address key challenges in understanding disease transmission dynamics. The study applies component...
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A mechanistic modeling approach to assessing the sensitivity of outcomes of water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions to local contexts and intervention factors
June 2025
Diarrheal disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in young children. Water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) improvements have historically been responsible for major public health gains,...
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Interventions for SARS-CoV-2 prevention among Jailed adults: A network-based modeling analysis
June 2025
Airborne pathogens present challenges in settings like jails or prisons with a high density of contacts. The state of Georgia has the highest percentage of its citizens under correctional supervision...
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Rapid aging of influenza epidemics in China from 2005/06 to 2016/17: A population-based study
June 2025
China is an aging society, and the older population is at a higher risk of influenza infection and influenza-related mortality. However, there is limited knowledge regarding the aging of influenza epidemics,...
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Diphtheria transmission dynamics – Unveiling generation time and reproduction numbers from the 2022–2023 outbreak in Kano state, Nigeria
June 2025
Diphtheria, caused by Corynebacterium diphtheriae, remains a serious public health threat in areas with low vaccination coverage, despite global declines due to widespread immunization and improved...
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