Predicting influenza in China from October 1, 2023, to February 5, 2024: A transmission dynamics model based on population migration
March 2025
Since November 2023, influenza has ranked first in reported cases of infectious diseases in China, with the outbreak in both northern and southern provinces exceeding the levels observed during the...
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Epidemiological impact of revoking mask-wearing recommendation on COVID-19 transmission in Tokyo, Japan
December 2024
Despite the global implementation of COVID-19 mitigation measures, the disease continues to maintain transmission. Although mask wearing became one of the key measures for preventing the transmission...
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Plausible explanation for the third COVID-19 wave in India and its implications
March 2023
Recently some of us used a random-walk Monte Carlo simulation approach to study the spread of COVID-19. The calculations were reasonably successful in describing secondary and tertiary waves of infection,...
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Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study
September 2023
The potential for dengue fever epidemic due to climate change remains uncertain in tropical areas. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on dengue fever transmission in four South and...
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Mathematical modeling of malaria transmission dynamics in humans with mobility and control states
December 2023
Malaria importation is one of the hypothetical drivers of malaria transmission dynamics across the globe. Several studies on malaria importation focused on the effect of the use of conventional malaria...
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To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic
2020
Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood....
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Global infectious disease early warning models: An updated review and lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic
June 2025
An early warning model for infectious diseases is a crucial tool for timely monitoring, prevention, and control of disease outbreaks. The integration of diverse multi-source data using big data and...
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A simple modification to the classical SIR model to estimate the proportion of under-reported infections using case studies in flu and COVID-19
December 2024
Under-reporting and, thus, uncertainty around the true incidence of health events is common in all public health reporting systems. While the problem of under-reporting is acknowledged in epidemiology,...
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Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
2020
The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate...
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Regional variations in HIV diagnosis in Japan before and during the COVID-19 pandemic
March 2025
The number of people undergoing voluntary HIV testing has abruptly decreased since 2020. The geographical heterogeneity of HIV infection and the impact of COVID-19 on the diagnosis of HIV at regional...
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Application of multiple linear regression model and long short-term memory with compartmental model to forecast dengue cases in Selangor, Malaysia based on climate variables
March 2025
Despite the implementation of various initiatives, dengue remains a significant public health concern in Malaysia. Given that dengue has no specific treatment, dengue prediction remains a useful early...
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Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models
August 2017
This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with...
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A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion
2020
A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that...
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Origins of the problematic E in SEIR epidemic models
September 2024
During the COVID-19 pandemic, over one thousand papers were published on “Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed” (SEIR) epidemic computational models. The English word “exposed” in its vernacular and...
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Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example
2020
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated...
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Graph modelling for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic spread
2021
The modelling is widely used in determining the best strategies for the mitigation of the impact of infectious diseases. Currently, the modelling of a complex system such as the spread of COVID-19 infection...
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COVID-19 epidemic prediction and the impact of public health interventions: A review of COVID-19 epidemic models
2021
The coronavirus disease outbreak of 2019 (COVID-19) has been spreading rapidly to all corners of the word, in a very complex manner. A key research focus is in predicting the development trend of COVID-19...
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Comparative assessment of airborne infection risk tools in enclosed spaces: Implications for disease control
March 2025
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, highlighted the importance of understanding transmission modes and implementing effective mitigation strategies. Recognizing airborne transmission as a primary...
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A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis
May 2017
Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential...
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Deep learning model meets community-based surveillance of acute flaccid paralysis
March 2025
Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) case surveillance is pivotal for the early detection of potential poliovirus, particularly in endemic countries such as Ethiopia. The community-based surveillance system...
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Quantifying West Nile virus circulation in the avian host population in Northern Italy
June 2025
West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most threatening mosquito-borne pathogens in Italy where hundreds of human cases were recorded during the last decade. Here, we estimated the WNV incidence in the...
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Understanding the impact of HIV on mpox transmission in the MSM population: A mathematical modeling study
December 2024
The recent mpox outbreak (in 2022–2023) has different clinical and epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks of the disease. During this outbreak, sexual contact was believed to be the...
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Increasing age and duration of sex work among female sex workers in South Africa and implications for HIV incidence estimation: Bayesian evidence synthesis and simulation exercise
March 2024
In sub-Saharan Africa, accurate estimates of the HIV epidemic in female sex workers are crucial for effective prevention and care strategies. These estimates are typically derived from mathematical...
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Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future
May 2017
We give a brief outline of some of the important aspects of the development of mathematical epidemiology....
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Multi-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological forecasting and age-dependent vaccination policies
2021
We use an age-dependent SIR system of equations to model the evolution of the COVID-19. Parameters that measure the amount of interaction in different locations (home, work, school, other) are approximated...
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