Socioeconomic benefits of the Brazilian INSS AtestMed programme

Risk Sciences aims to foster diverse, multidisciplinary insights in risk sciences, bridging theory and practice through a series of academic activities. This talk is part of the "Practice Insights" track of this series, highlights key lessons from real-world experiences, offering valuable perspectives to researchers and practitioners alike.

This study analyses forecast modelling with time series for INSS expenses related to the AtestMed programme within the Brazilian Welfare and Pension System. The AtestMed programme, a recent socioeconomic initiative by the Brazilian government, aims to manage benefit compensations due to temporary disability more efficiently. It is designed to improve and shorten delays in the processing and payment of compensations, leading to significant savings by reducing disability periods. The dataset used includes monthly monetary data from January 2021 to September 2024, adjusted for inflation according to the National Consumer Price Index (INPC). We examine the behaviour of INSS costs with and without the AtestMed programme, noting that it was implemented in July 2023. The methodology employs six different time series models (Simple, Holt and Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing, ARMA, ARIMA and SARIMA) for analysing cost trends. By comparing the outcomes for total costs with and without AtestMed, this approach provides a deeper understanding of chronological as well as seasonal trends in INSS spending, anticipates variations, and optimises socioeconomic management. The forecasts generated from this study aim to enhance strategic decision-making within the scope of social security.

Agenda

Speaker

Renata Alcoforado holds a PhD in Applied Mathematics to Economics and Management, awarded summa cum laude by ISEG – University of Lisbon, Portugal. She also earned a Bachelor's degree in Actuarial Sciences from the Federal University of Pernambuco (summa cum laude, 2013). Currently, she is a postdoctoral researcher at Aix-Marseille Université – Institut de Mathématiques de Marseille (I2M), as part of the Chaire d'Excellence “ACTIONS” (Actuaries for Change in Technologies and Insurees Opportunities for Next Steps). She is a professor in the Department of Accounting and Actuarial Sciences at UFPE, an active member of the Portuguese Actuarial Institute, and a researcher at CEMAPRE – Center for Applied Mathematics to Economic Forecasting and Decision. She previously served as a Presidential Advisor at INSS and was a member of the Technical Group on Social Security of the Governmental Transition Office. She is also a member of the Advisory/Editorial Board of (In)justice International – A Global Collective. Her research interests include risk and ruin theory, social security, pension funds, and insurance. Renata is a dual citizen of Brazil and Portugal.