Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study
September 2023
The potential for dengue fever epidemic due to climate change remains uncertain in tropical areas. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on dengue fever transmission in four South and...
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Plausible explanation for the third COVID-19 wave in India and its implications
March 2023
Recently some of us used a random-walk Monte Carlo simulation approach to study the spread of COVID-19. The calculations were reasonably successful in describing secondary and tertiary waves of infection,...
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A simple modification to the classical SIR model to estimate the proportion of under-reported infections using case studies in flu and COVID-19
December 2024
Under-reporting and, thus, uncertainty around the true incidence of health events is common in all public health reporting systems. While the problem of under-reporting is acknowledged in epidemiology,...
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Mathematical modeling of malaria transmission dynamics in humans with mobility and control states
December 2023
Malaria importation is one of the hypothetical drivers of malaria transmission dynamics across the globe. Several studies on malaria importation focused on the effect of the use of conventional malaria...
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To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic
2020
Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood....
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Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
2020
The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate...
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A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion
2020
A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that...
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Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models
August 2017
This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with...
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The transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics: Its aims, assumptions and limitations
March 2023
Most of the progress in the development of single scale mathematical and computational models for the study of infectious disease dynamics which now span over a century is build on a body of knowledge...
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Graph modelling for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic spread
2021
The modelling is widely used in determining the best strategies for the mitigation of the impact of infectious diseases. Currently, the modelling of a complex system such as the spread of COVID-19 infection...
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Understanding the impact of HIV on mpox transmission in the MSM population: A mathematical modeling study
December 2024
The recent mpox outbreak (in 2022–2023) has different clinical and epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks of the disease. During this outbreak, sexual contact was believed to be the...
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COVID-19 epidemic prediction and the impact of public health interventions: A review of COVID-19 epidemic models
2021
The coronavirus disease outbreak of 2019 (COVID-19) has been spreading rapidly to all corners of the word, in a very complex manner. A key research focus is in predicting the development trend of COVID-19...
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Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example
2020
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated...
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Predicting influenza in China from October 1, 2023, to February 5, 2024: A transmission dynamics model based on population migration
March 2025
Since November 2023, influenza has ranked first in reported cases of infectious diseases in China, with the outbreak in both northern and southern provinces exceeding the levels observed during the...
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Regional variations in HIV diagnosis in Japan before and during the COVID-19 pandemic
March 2025
The number of people undergoing voluntary HIV testing has abruptly decreased since 2020. The geographical heterogeneity of HIV infection and the impact of COVID-19 on the diagnosis of HIV at regional...
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A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis
May 2017
Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential...
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Increasing age and duration of sex work among female sex workers in South Africa and implications for HIV incidence estimation: Bayesian evidence synthesis and simulation exercise
March 2024
In sub-Saharan Africa, accurate estimates of the HIV epidemic in female sex workers are crucial for effective prevention and care strategies. These estimates are typically derived from mathematical...
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Nonlinear mixed models and related approaches in infectious disease modeling: A systematic and critical review
March 2025
The level of surveillance and preparedness against epidemics varies across countries, resulting in different responses to outbreaks. When conducting an in-depth analysis of microinfection dynamics,...
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Assessing the impact of disease incidence and immunization on the resilience of complex networks during epidemics
March 2025
Disease severity through an immunized population ensconced on a physical network topology is a key technique for preventing epidemic spreading. Its influence can be quantified by adjusting the common...
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Climate-based dengue model in Semarang, Indonesia: Predictions and descriptive analysis
2021
Dengue is one of the most rapidly spreading vector-borne diseases, which is considered to be a major health concern in tropical and sub-tropical countries. It is strongly believed that the spread and...
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Modeling measles transmission in adults and children: Implications to vaccination for eradication
December 2024
Despite the availability of successful vaccines, measles outbreaks have occurred frequently in recent years, presumably due to the lack of proper vaccination implementation. Moreover, measles cases...
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Mathematical modeling with optimal control analysis of social media addiction
2021
In this paper, we developed a deterministic mathematical model of social media addiction (SMA) with an optimal control strategy. Major qualitative analysis like the social media addiction free equilibrium...
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Impact of vaccination on Omicron's escape variants: Insights from fine-scale modelling of waning immunity in Hong Kong
March 2025
COVID-19 vaccine-induced protection declines over time. This waning of immunity has been described in modelling as a lower level of protection. This study incorporated fine-scale vaccine waning into...
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Understanding the transmission pathways of Lassa fever: A mathematical modeling approach
March 2023
The spread of Lassa fever infection is increasing in West Africa over the last decade. The impact of this can better be understood when considering the various possible transmission routes. We designed...
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Prediction and control of cholera outbreak: Study case of Cameroon
September 2024
This paper deals with the problem of the prediction and control of cholera outbreak using real data of Cameroon. We first develop and analyze a deterministic model with seasonality for the cholera,...
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